How Tinubu’s ‘Counter Coup’ Pushed El-Rufai Out Of APC –By Gbade OGUNWALE
Mar 12, 2025
It’s no longer news that former Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai, has dumped the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). It’s also no news that he has found a new abode in the Social Democratic Party (SDP). What is news, however, is that El-Rufai and President Bola Tinubu parted ways shortly after the 2015 general election.
El-Rufai had, in times past, shown uncanny pleasure in launching unprovoked verbal attacks on the ex-Lagos governor. That was before 2015, long before the two politicians joined others to form the APC. While in the APC, the two men never pretended to be fond of each other. Belonging to the same platform does not necessarily make partisans friends. Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and Mr. Nyesom Wike can testify to this.
Whatever political relationship El-Rufai and Tinubu were able to cobble together as fellow APC chieftains melted away shortly after Muhammadu Buhari won the 2015 presidential election. Watchers of the power circle were quick to observe that Buhari openly displayed his fascination with Tinubu’s strategic moves, which paved the way for his emergence as the APC presidential candidate.
Buhari acknowledged that without Tinubu’s mastery of the game, he could not have beaten heavyweights like Atiku Abubakar, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Aminu Tambuwal, and others who contested the APC ticket with him. With the Tinubu advantage, Buhari scaled the presidential primary hurdles, clinched the APC ticket, and won the election. In gratitude, Buhari more or less elevated Tinubu to the status of his political godfather.
At his swearing-in ceremony on May 29, 2015, Buhari could hardly conceal his admiration for Tinubu. He kept pumping the former Lagos State governor’s hand in numerous handshakes. He gave him several pats on the back at every close encounter. It became obvious to the public that Buhari had found a benefactor and political godfather in Tinubu—especially given his previous three failed attempts at the presidency in 2003, 2007, and 2011.
However, the camaraderie was short-lived. Along the line, Buhari started giving Tinubu the cold shoulder a few months into his first term. And for a man not given to much restraint, Buhari continued to drive a wedge between Tinubu and his presidency. It wasn’t long before a memo authored by El-Rufai and addressed to Buhari was leaked to the media. In the said memo, El-Rufai stated, among other things, that Tinubu’s contribution to Buhari’s 2015 election “was being exaggerated.”
At that point, Tinubu understood why his initially chummy relationship with Buhari had suddenly grown tepid. The thinly veiled rejection from the then-president kept growing. The one-sided cold war became so pronounced that Tinubu’s wife, Remi, then a serving senator, was forced to voice her protestations on the Senate floor. She openly accused Buhari of ditching her husband after helping him win the presidency.
But Buhari’s unprovoked indignation toward his now-estranged benefactor continued unabated. Credible sources within the ruling APC at the time observed that Tinubu was not allowed to make inputs into Buhari’s cabinet picks and other strategic appointments.
Right from his first tenure, a handful of power grabbers within and outside Buhari’s kitchen cabinet were the ones running the government. They formed a cabal that ran rings around the stubbornly insular ex-president.
Members of the cabal had very little electoral value, but they were sufficiently disdainful of Tinubu. They used their domineering influence to keep the Lagos Boy far away from their Aso Villa captive. They created the false impression that they held the key to Buhari’s re-election in 2019. They started treating Tinubu like an expendable commodity. The cabal kept widening the growing chasm between the Daura-born ex-Army General and his political benefactor.
Then El-Rufai came out in the open. He took it upon himself to “demystify” Tinubu by rallying some of the man’s political associates for an “insurrection” against their leader. From his base in Kaduna, he became a regular visitor to Lagos, the nucleus of Tinubu’s political base in the Southwest. He recruited some of Tinubu’s former inner circle, including Kayode Fayemi, Muiz Banire, and Ibikunle Amosun. He spared no expense as he openly canvassed an end to the era of political godfathers.
Without knowing that Tinubu had the most loyal political allies in Nigeria, Wole Arisekola, an Ibadan indigene and publisher of Street Journal Newspaper, was the first to fire a salvo at Muiz Banire. He took the Senior Advocate to the cleaners, forcing Banire to quickly retreat into his shell.( https://thestreetjournal.org/opinion-banire-battling-to-dethrone-tinubu-in-lagos-foolhardy-by-aare-wole-arisekole-writes-from-ibadan/) This was followed by Steve Omoteye, who destroyed Kayode Fayemi’s political base with a scathing article in The Nation Newspaper on February 13, 2018.
During one of El-Rufai’s numerous “missionary journeys,” he asked an incumbent Lagos governor: “When are you going to retire your godfather from politics?” The first-term governor replied: “Second tenure.” And this was a young man who, against all odds, rode on the godfather’s shoulders to the Lagos government house.
That phrase sealed the godfather’s fate in the governor’s mind. However, he must have forgotten that Tinubu had numerous loyalists spread across the state. The voice note of the governor’s “second tenure” plan echoed through the walls of Bourdillon. If a governor you installed plans to retire you in his second tenure, bringing him back is at your own peril. That’s how that governor lost his potential re-election ticket in 2019—a political death. He has since taken his seat on the reserve bench, watching events from the sidelines.
But the move to push Tinubu off the cliff ahead of the 2023 race did not stop. Three other former Southwest governors, whom Tinubu fought tooth and nail to enthrone, joined the fray. With El-Rufai’s encouragement, former Ekiti governor Kayode Fayemi challenged Tinubu for the 2023 APC presidential ticket. Ogun State’s Ibikunle Amosun, prodded by Buhari’s cabal, also joined the race. Similarly, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo saw an opportunity to upstage Tinubu.
Perhaps the biggest betrayal came from Rauf Aregbesola. Unlike the others, he publicly denigrated his former principal. It must have felt like the thrust of Brutus’ sword in Caesar’s groin. Et tu, Rauf?
The four “renegades” could not hide their dismay when Tinubu, against all odds, outmaneuvered Buhari’s cabal and clinched the APC presidential ticket. The godfather crowned it by winning the general election.
El-Rufai’s Hidden Agenda
El-Rufai had no personal animosity toward Tinubu when he instigated Jagaban’s loyalists against him. His goal was to position himself as a vice-presidential candidate in 2023. However, his calculations failed when Tinubu chose Kashim Shettima as his running mate.
Tinubu’s Pound Of Flesh
El-Rufai’s name was included in Tinubu’s ministerial list, but his confirmation was halted due to an “unfavorable security report.” It was a public humiliation—Tinubu’s payback for past betrayals.
El-Rufai had once claimed that Tinubu’s role in Buhari’s 2015 victory was exaggerated. Yet, in 2023, Tinubu won only 29.4% of votes in El-Rufai’s Kaduna, while Atiku secured 40.8%.
In the end, Tinubu won the political chess game. It was coup and counter-coup. Tit for tat. Today, the godfather El-Rufai sought to retire now holds the sword by the hilt.
What a thing about politics.
