Nigeria’s manufacturing sector suffered losses amounting to about N1.2 trillion between 2019 and 2023, according to a new report by Quartus Economics. The research, titled Inside Nigeria’s Quiet Recovery, attributes the decline to the combined impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the naira redesign policy.
The study analysed the economy using data from the National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) recent GDP rebasing exercise. It found that during the four-year slump, agriculture grew by just 11 percent, services by 3 percent, while manufacturing contracted sharply by 21 percent. More than half of Nigeria’s industrial categories saw declines in value, while almost one-fifth recorded slow growth compared to 2019 levels.
However, the report notes a turnaround beginning in 2024, with the economy expanding by 4.1 percent year-on-year. Manufacturing GDP rose marginally by 1.19 percent — equivalent to N207 billion — reducing the depth of previous losses. By the end of 2024, only seven out of 46 industrial groups remained in decline.
Key drivers of the manufacturing rebound include chemical and pharmaceutical products, which grew by N33.9 billion (2.37 percent); food, beverage, and tobacco, which added N81.5 billion (2.50 percent); and non-metallic products, up N15.5 billion (1.72 percent). Other gains came from motor vehicles and assembly (N1.29 billion or 1.27 percent) and basic metals (N3.33 billion or 0.62 percent).
Despite the gains, some subsectors remain in negative territory. The textile, apparel, and footwear industry declined by N72 billion (1.58 percent), while oil refining contracted by 14.67 percent (N1.7 billion). Pulp and paper recorded only a marginal rise of 0.44 percent, and electrical and electronics inched up by 1.27 percent.
The NBS recently reported that Nigeria’s GDP grew by 3.13 percent in the first quarter of 2025, compared to 2.27 percent in the same period of 2024. The services sector drove this growth, contributing 57.5 percent to the total GDP, far ahead of the industrial sector’s 21.08 percent share.
Reacting to the data, the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) said the rebased GDP figures revealed the industrial sector’s underperformance. The group urged the federal government to prioritise policies that strengthen manufacturing and industrialisation to ensure that growth translates into real economic gains.
Quartus Economics concludes that while Nigeria’s manufacturing sector is showing signs of recovery, sustained policy support will be essential to maintain momentum and address long-standing structural challenges.
